IATA forecasts passenger numbers to reach 3.6 billion in 2016:
Geneva
- The International Air Transport Association (IATA)
released an industry traffic forecast showing that airlines expect to welcome
some 3.6 billion passengers in 2016. That’s about 800 million more than the 2.8
billion passengers carried by airlines in 2011.
These
figures are revealed in the IATA Airline Industry Forecast 2012-2016. This
industry consensus outlook for system-wide passenger growth sees passenger
numbers expanding by an average of 5.3% per annum between 2012 and 2016. The
28.5% increase in passenger numbers over the forecast period will see almost
500 million new passengers traveling on domestic routes and 331 million new
passengers on international services.
International
freight volumes will grow at 3% per annum to total 34.5 million tonnes in 2016.
That is 4.8 million more tonnes of air cargo than the 29.6 million tonnes
carried in 2011.
The
emerging economies of Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East will see
the strongest passenger growth. This will be led by routes within or connected
to China, which are expected to account for 193 million of the 831 million new
passengers over the forecast period (159 million on domestic routes and 34
million traveling internationally). Passenger growth within the Asia-Pacific
region (domestic and international) is expected to add around 380 million
passengers over the forecast period.
Through
2016, the United States will continue to be the largest
single market for domestic passengers (710.2 million). In the same year,
passengers on international routes connected to the United
States will total 223 million, making it the largest single market for
international travel as well. Reflecting the maturity of the United States market,
growth rates (2.6% for domestic and 4.3% for international) will be well below
the international average (5.3 % for international travel and 5.2% for domestic
traffic).
“Despite
the current economic uncertainty, expected demand for connectivity remains
strong. That’s good news for the global economy. Growing air transport links
generate jobs and underpin economic growth in all economies. But exploiting
these will require governments to recognize aviation’s value with policies that
do not stifle innovation, tax regimes that do not punish success and
investments to enable infrastructure to keep up with growth,” said Tony Tyler,
IATA’s Director General and CEO. Globally, aviation supports some 57 million
jobs and $2.2 trillion in economic activity.
Forecast
Highlights:
International
Passenger Development
- International passenger numbers
are expected to grow from 1.11 billion in 2011 to 1.45 billion passengers
in 2016, bringing 331 million passengers for a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 5.3%.
- Five of the 10 fastest growing
markets for international passenger traffic are among the Commonwealth of
Independent States or were part of the former Soviet Union with the others
in Latin America, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Kazakhstan leads at 20.3% CAGR, followed by Uzbekistan (11.1%), Sudan
(9.2%), Uruguay (9%), Azerbaijan (8.9%), Ukraine (8.8%), Cambodia (8.7%), Chile
(8.5%), Panama (8.5%) and the Russian Federation (8.4%).
- By 2016, the top five countries
for international travel measured by number of passengers will be the
United States (at 223.1 million, an increase of 42.1 million), the United Kingdom (at 200.8 million, 32.8
million new passengers), Germany (at 172.9 million, +28.2 million),
Spain (134.6 million, +21.6 million), and France (123.1 million, +23.4 million).
Domestic
Passenger Development
- Domestic passenger numbers are expected
to rise from 1.72 billion in 2011 to 2.21 billion in 2016, a 494 million
increase reflecting a CAGR of 5.2% over the period.
- Kazakhstan will experience the
fastest growth rate at 22.5% CAGR, adding 3.9 million passengers to the
2.2 million in 2011. India
will have the second highest growth rate at 13.1% CAGR, adding 49.3
million new passengers. China’s 10.1% rate will result in 158.9 million
new domestic passengers. No other country is expected to experience
double-digit growth rates over the forecast period. Brazil, which has the industry’s third largest domestic
market after the United States and China, will experience an 8% CAGR,
adding 38 million new passengers.
- By 2016 the five largest markets
for domestic passengers will be the United States (710.2 million), China
(415 million), Brazil (118.9 million), India (107.2 million), and Japan
(93.2 million).
International
Freight Developments
- International freight volumes are
expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 3.0%, which is the result of an
upward growth trend over forecast period - starting at 1.4% growth in 2012
and reaching 3.7% in 2016.
- The five fastest growing
international freight markets over the 2011-2016 period will be Sir Lanka
(8.7% CAGR), Vietnam (7.4%), Brazil (6.3%), India (6.0%)
and Egypt
(5.9%). Five of the 10 fastest growing countries are in the Middle East
North Africa (MENA) region, reflecting MENA’s growing importance in
international air freight.
- By 2016, the largest international
freight markets will be the United States (7.7 million tonnes), Germany
(4.2 million tonnes), China (3.5 million tonnes), Hong Kong (3.2 million tonnes), Japan (2.9
million tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (2.5 million tonnes),
the Republic of Korea (1.9 million tonnes), the
United Kingdom (1.8 million tonnes), India (1.6 million tonnes) and the Netherlands (1.6 million tonnes).
- Freight carriage within the
Asia-Pacific region will account for around 30% of the expected total
increase in freight tonnage over the period.
Regional
Outlook over the 2012-2016 forecast period
- Asia-Pacific passenger traffic is
forecast to grow at 6.7% CAGR. Traffic within the Asia-Pacific region will
represent 33% of global passengers in 2016, up from 29% in 2011. This
makes the region the largest regional market for air transport (ahead of
North America and Europe which each represent 21%). International freight
demand will rise 3% CAGR, in line with global growth over the period.
Routes within and connected to the Asia-Pacific region will comprise some
57% of cargo shipments.
- Africa will report the strongest
passenger growth with 6.8% CAGR. International cargo demand will rise 4%.
- The Middle East is expected to
have the third fastest growth rate at 6.6%. International freight demand
will grow at 4.9%, the strongest growth among the regions.
- Europe will see international
passenger demand growth of 4.4% CAGR. International freight demand for the
region will grow 2.2% CAGR, the slowest for any region.
- North America will record the
slowest international passenger demand growth--4.3% CAGR. International
freight demand will rise 2.4%.
- Latin America will see
international passenger demand grow 5.8% CAGR. International freight
demand will increase 4.4% per annum.
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